What Pushed Nowcasts Up? | Econbrowser

Following up on the previous nowcast post, there are two items of relevance: (1) trade balance (for May); (2) manufacturing orders. Here’s trade balance (release):

Figure 1: Goods trade balance (blue), and Bloomberg consensus as of 7/26 (red square), in millions dollars, s.a. June observation is advance. Source: BEA/Census and Bloomberg. 

In an accounting sense, once you have set ideas for C, I, G, and your estimate of NX is revised upward in light of new information, then you move up your nowcast for C+I+G+NX, i.e., hence for GDP growth.

This entry was posted on by Menzie Chinn.